The Numbers Behind The Hires
- Dave Bartoo
- 1 day ago
- 4 min read
Why coaching infrastructure can be more important than recruiting rankings
Texas Tech is ranked #6 nationally. 17 other programs paid $550M+ in buyouts.
When The Numbers Work: Texas Tech
December 2024: Texas Tech hires Shiel Wood (DC) and Mack Leftwich (OC) to replace their coordinators. We immediately post:
Big upside, low downside. That's talent acquisition risk in a nutshell for us. The best risk new OC/DC combo in FBS this hiring season so far is @ShielWood and @Coach_Leftwich for @TexasTechFB That is how you #WreckEm in the coaching carousel!
What everyone else saw: A strong recruiting class. Transfer portal additions. Returning talent. The narrative was about players.
What the CRI numbers showed: Two coordinators with Rising Star talent-adjusted performance grades, with proven track records of immediate defensive and offensive improvement. The data said this was one of the biggest coaching infrastructure upgrades for 2025.
November 2025: That OC/DC combination now ranks #3 nationally—the biggest year-over-year staff improvement in FBS. Wood and Leftwich have each been named Big 12 Coordinator of the Week multiple times. Texas Tech is a legitimate conference title contender with a #6 playoff ranking.
The players everyone was talking about? They mattered. But the coaching infrastructure is what made those players and the team great. That's what CRI can identify—before the season starts.
2025 FBS Firings Profiled
12 head coaches
2 with solid staff profiles including top 30 grades at OC DC and STC combined
1 staff with solid unit profiles but limited OC DC experience
3 staffs with offense and/or defense subpar career grades. Avoidable from day 1
6 staff with rookie head coaches that built staffs ranked outside the FBS top 100 on their first day on the job.
When The Numbers Work but the Wrong Way: $550M+ in Buyouts
Over the past six years, 17 FBS programs fired their head coaches after seasons where structural staffing problems were visible in the data before those seasons began.
None of them had the information they needed to make different decisions.
These aren't cherry-picked examples. They represent a consistent pattern: programs making staffing decisions without comprehensive performance data pay predictable costs.
Total cost across 17 programs: $550,000,000+
Combined CRI subscription cost for all 17: $102,000
Neal Brown | West Virginia | Fired December 2024
What the data showed: Head coach calling plays with a 49.8% OC rating (2.5-star, bottom quartile). DC at 42.5%—below average—compensated $454K above market rate. Multiple position coaches grading below average.
The structural issue: DC overpayment consumed the budget that could have upgraded OC position. The head coach retained play-calling despite talent-adjusted metrics showing coordinator-level performance below replacement value.
The outcome: December 2024: Neal Brown fired. Buyout: $15-20M.
Having the data is necessary. Acting on it may determine the outcome.
The structural patterns that preceded their head coach firings were identifiable in comprehensive performance data—but that data wasn't available to them at decision time.
SEC (5 Cases)
Ed Orgeron, LSU (2021): Lost elite OC and DC, replaced with coordinators having no prior coordinator experience. Staff composite grade dropped to bottom quartile. Championship HC fired two years later.
Brian Kelly, LSU (2025): Retained 2.5-star DC (42% talent-adjusted rating) for two seasons, then hired 2.5-star OC. Elite-compensated HC fired after consecutive below-market coordinator retention/hiring.
Chad Morris, Arkansas (2019): Career performance data showed below-replacement coordinator track record before HC promotion. Fired after two years.
Zach Arnett, Mississippi State (2023): Lowest-graded staff in SEC from day one. Fired after single season.
Les Miles, Kansas (2021): 2-star DC (bottom 20% nationally) before season began. Fired while on his original contract.
Big 12 / Big Ten / ACC (7 Cases)
Tom Herman, Texas (2020): Hired DC with 2.5-star career coordinator rating. Fired after 2020 season, $15M+ buyout.
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State (2025): Consecutive 2-star then 2.5-star OC hires while DC performance regressed. The best HC in program history fired in part due to coordinator performance collapse.
Tom Allen, Indiana (2023): Staff composite ranked #96 in FBS the year of firing. Bottom-third nationally.
DeShaun Foster, UCLA (2025): RB coach with no coordinator experience promoted to HC. Staff composite bottom-10 Power 4 from day one.
Mack Brown, North Carolina (2024): Never achieved above-average OC and DC simultaneously in tenure. Fired after repeated near-miss seasons.
Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech (2021): Inherited elite DC, lost him to lateral move. Staff rankings fell to the bottom quartile, never recovered.
Brent Pry, Virginia Tech (2025): First-time HC with below-average staff composite from day one. Never achieved above-average OC/DC pairing.
Group of 5 (4 Cases)
Kevin Wilson, Tulsa (2024): Bottom-10 FBS staff grade from day one. Predictable result.
Stan Drayton, Temple (2024): Staff ranked #122 nationally in 2023. No changes made entering 2024 season.
Biff Poggi, Charlotte (2024): First-time HC with #123 staff composite grade. Short tenure.
Andy Avalos, Boise State (2023): Offensive staff outside top 100 nationally. Program reset followed.
The Consistent Structural Patterns
Common structural patterns preceding these 17 firings:
Coordinators compensated above market rate while performing below replacement value
Staff composite grades in bottom quartile nationally from day one
Coordinator hiring or retention with 2-2.5 star talent-adjusted ratings (below 65%)
Elite coordinator departures replaced by coordinators with no prior coordinator experience
Never achieving above-average OC and DC simultaneously during HC tenure
HC promotions of coaches with below-replacement career coordinator performance
The Math Is Simple
CRI subscription: $1500 quarterly
Cost for all 17 programs: $102,000 total
What they actually paid: $550,000,000+
ROI if just one program avoided a firing: 500-2,500x
The Information Gap
CRI tracks 1,200+ FBS coaches across 136 programs annually with talent-adjusted performance metrics unavailable elsewhere. The difference between these 17 outcomes and Texas Tech's trajectory isn't luck or hindsight—it's information access at decision time.
For your program's current staff decisions:
Do you have talent-adjusted performance data for your coordinators relative to market compensation?
Do you know where your staff composite ranks nationally and within your conference?
When evaluating coordinator candidates, do you have comprehensive track record data beyond win-loss records?
If you lost a coordinator today, could you identify replacement candidates with proven performance grades?
CRI provides this infrastructure. $6,000 annually. The 17 programs above paid $850M+ in buyouts and resets without it.
Contact Dave Bartoo: 503.504.8710
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