The Middle 8 - Year over Year
- Dave Bartoo
- May 1
- 4 min read
Testing the Middle 8 Hypothesis
PART II
A Statistical Year Over Year Analysis of Game Management in College Football (2010-2025)
Executive Summary
In my last article on the Middle 8 (LINK: https://www.matrixanalytical.com/post/the-middle-8-myth-in-fbs-football) I reviewed the Middle 8 Block COMPOSITE from 2010-2025.
The composite structure of 2016-2025 generated a follow up question to the year over year layers of the 10 year composite metric from an FBS coach. He asked to see a year over year trend breakdown of the middle 8 to see if it was constant, progressing or regressing in ranked importance to ‘close’ games to start each block. Side note: I enjoy coaches that ask me for more and are rarely satisfied with one answer and push to ‘sharpen the spear’ with questions and ideas to continue to find an edge to push college football to new levels.
The 10 year composite showed that the ‘Middle 8’ is an average value 8 minute block segment of a FBS game. This article broke down the Middle 8 by annual percentage impact on close games and its rank amongst the 11 blocks from 2010-2025.
Key Finding: The Middle 8 ranked 6.5 of 11 blocks on average over the 16 season span, with a 71.6% win rate for teams that won the block. It never ranked first or second in any of the 16 seasons analyzed. Its best season ranked #3 (2021) and it bottomed out at #10 twice (2012, 2018, 2024) and #11 in 2025. The conclusion is that prior to its first mention in 2014, the result varied widely year over year. Since 2014, the Middle 8 results retained a wide variance but have been regressing in value with mostly lower higher and lower lows year over year.
Background
The Middle 8 concept has been widely discussed in football coaching circles, particularly following endorsements from high-profile coaches. The theory suggests this specific 8-minute window is more predictive of game outcomes than other periods. This study was designed to test that hypothesis using comprehensive play-by-play data.
Methodology
Data Source: Drive-level play-by-play data for all FBS vs FBS games from 2010-2025 seasons
Sample: 4,617 games over 16 seasons
Game State Filter: Only games within 7 points at the start of each block (to exclude blowouts)
Blocks Analyzed: 11 eight-minute windows throughout the game
The 11 blocks analyzed were:
• Q1 15:00-7:00
• Q1 8:00-0:00
• Q1/Q2 Bridge (Q1 4:00 - Q2 11:00)
• Q2 15:00-7:00
• Q2 8:00-0:00
• Middle 8 (Q2 4:00 - Q3 11:00)
• Q3 15:00-7:00
• Q3 8:00-0:00
• Q3/Q4 Bridge (Q3 4:00 - Q4 11:00)
• Q4 15:00-7:00
• Q4 8:00-0:00 (Final 8)
Measurement: For each block, we calculated the percentage of games where the team that outscored its opponent during that block also won the game. Blocks were then ranked 1-11 by this win percentage for each season.
Results
Aggregate Statistics (2010-2025):
• Overall Win Rate: 71.6%
• Mean Rank: 6.5 of 11 blocks
• Top 3 Finishes: 3 of 16 seasons (18.8%)
• Bottom 3 Finishes: 4 of 16 seasons (25.0%)
• Trend: -0.26 percentage points per year
Analysis
Temporal Patterns
The Middle 8 showed considerable year-to-year variance, ranging from 67.1% (2025) to 77.4% (2021). The data shows a declining trend of -0.26 percentage points per year, though this trend is not statistically significant at conventional levels.
Comparative Performance
The Middle 8 never ranked first or second in any season. It ranked third or better in only 3 of 16 seasons. By comparison, the Q4 Final 8 (last 8 minutes of regulation) consistently ranked first with win rates typically between 82-85%.
Recent Performance
From 2022-2025, the Middle 8 ranked 6th, 8th, 10th, and 11th. The 2025 season marked the worst relative performance on record, with the Middle 8 ranking last among all 11 blocks analyzed.
Conclusions
The data does not support the hypothesis that the Middle 8 represents a uniquely important game segment. Key findings:
1. The Middle 8 ranked 6.5 of 11 on average, indicating below-average predictive value relative to other 8-minute windows.
2. The Middle 8 never achieved top-tier status (ranks 1-2) in any of the 16 seasons studied.
3. The Q4 Final 8 consistently demonstrated superior predictive value, suggesting that late-game execution remains the primary determinant of outcomes in close games.
4. Recent trends show declining performance of the Middle 8 relative to other blocks.
These findings suggest that game management resources may be better allocated to other critical periods, particularly the final eight minutes of regulation, which showed consistently stronger correlation with game outcomes.
Limitations
This analysis measures correlation between block performance and game outcomes, not causation. Other factors such as team quality, injuries, and situational play-calling may influence results. The study focused exclusively on FBS competition and results may not generalize to other levels of play.
Methodology Note
This analysis used drive-level data with drives assigned to blocks based on their end time. Only drives ending within each 8-minute window were counted to prevent double-counting across overlapping blocks. Games were filtered to include only those within 7 points at the start of each block to focus on competitive situations. Full methodology documentation is available upon request.
Contact
Dave Bartoo - Co-Founder Matrix Analytical Solutions 503 | 504 | 8710 jdbartoo@matrixanalytical.com
NEXT
An FBS head coach asks what about Middle 8 and all ten block margins and their impact on game outcome?
Matrix Analytical Solutions - April 2026
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